The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the OCR by 50 bps to 4.75% in February.
NZD/USD has rallied to 0.6245 as markets look past the Cyclone Gabrielle-led damage and the prospects of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Instead, investors are wary of the RBNZ's higher inflation expectations from 3.8% to 4.2% by March 2024.
Key notes
- RBNZ sees the OCR at 5.14% in June 2023 (previous 5.41%)
- Employment remains above its maximum sustainable level, and short-term inflation expectations remain high.
- Demand continues to outstrip supply.
- 50 and 75 bps increases were discussed.
- RBNZ still expects the cash rate to peak at 5.5%.
- While there are early signs of lessening pricing pressures, core consumer price inflation remains excessive.
- Core inflation remains too high.
- Monetary conditions must be tightened even more.
- Sees the OCR at 5.14% in June 2023 (previous 5.41%)
- There are early signs of lessening price pressures.
- Committee members agreed that monetary conditions needed to tighten much more.
- The committee remains committed to implementing monetary policy.
- RBNZ expects annual cpi to be 4.2% by March 2024 (previous 3.8%).
- Expects the official cash rate to be 4.05% in March 2026.
NZD/USD update
NZD/USD is showing signs of resilience to US Dollar strength on the interest rate decision:
Traders are looking to the RBNZ’s peak rate forecast and Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference later today. These will likely hold the key for NZD in the short term.
About the RBNZ interest rate decision
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0500, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD extended its daily decline toward 1.0500 in the second half of the American session, pressured by the souring market mood. Despite the bullish action seen earlier in the week, the pair remains on track to register weekly losses.
GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rebounds
Following an earlier recovery attempt, GBP/USD turned south and declined below 1.2100 in the second half of the day on Friday. The negative shift seen in risk mood amid rising geopolitical tensions helps the US Dollar outperform its rivals and hurts the pair.
Gold advances to fresh multi-week highs above $1,920
Gold extended its daily rally and climbed above $1,920 for the first time in over two weeks on Friday. Escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of the weekend weigh on T-bond yields and provide a boost to XAU/USD, which remains on track to gain nearly 5% this week.
Bitcoin could be an alternative to US-listed companies but not in the short term
Bitcoin has dipped below $27,000, adding to the subdued cryptocurrency market sentiment. While short-term price concerns persist, analysts predict a rebound based on historical figures.
Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA slips as Biden administration attempts to close AI chip loophole
Nvida's stock price opened marginally lower on Friday after Reuters reported that the Biden administration is attempting to close a loophole that allowed Chinese companies access to state-of-the-art computer chips used for AI.