USDJPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY consolidates near 149.70 ahead of the US Consumer Sentiment
USD/JPY snaps the recent winning streak ahead of US data. A slew of solid US data could underpin the US Dollar. S&P Global anticipates that Japan could see upward interest rates trajectory, beginning in 2024.
Latest JPY News
Technical Overview
USD/JPY trades lower around 149.70 during the European session on Friday, snapping a three-day winning streak that began on Tuesday. Despite reaching weekly highs, the USD/JPY pair has experienced a pullback, attributed to the retreat in the US Dollar (USD).
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades lower around 106.30 by the press time, retreating from the weekly highs. The US Dollar (USD) weakens due to the downbeat US Treasury yields, with the 10-year US bond yield standing at 4.64%, down by 1.23% at the time of writing.
The economic landscape in the United States has been dynamic, which could limit the losses of the US Dollar (USD). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations in September, with an annual expansion of 3.7%, slightly surpassing the estimated 3.6%.
Additionally, the modest increase in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on October 6, slightly below the forecasted 210K at 209K, suggests a nuanced trend indicating a mild easing.
This positive US economic data has reignited a hawkish sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate trajectory, which could support underpinning the USD/JPY pair. The upbeat indicators have introduced complexity to the ongoing narrative, leading to speculation about the Fed's potential response.
Investors are anticipated to closely monitor the release of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. This index serves as a crucial gauge of consumer confidence, providing insights into the broader economic sentiment. The ongoing analysis of these indicators is likely to influence trading decisions in the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced weakness due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) continuous adherence to an ultra-easy monetary policy. BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi has drawn attention on Thursday by expressing a lack of optimism about the acceleration in wage growth.
Noguchi attributes inflation to import price hikes, including currency factors, and emphasizes that there is still a considerable distance to achieving the 2% inflation target. These insights from a BoJ official contribute to the ongoing narrative surrounding the Japanese Yen and the central bank's monetary policy stance.
According to S&P Global's assessment of the Japanese economy and monetary policy, the rating agency anticipates that policy interest rates in Japan could experience an upward trajectory, beginning in 2024.
Big Picture
USDJPY Bullish Themes
USDJPY Bearish Themes
Latest JPY Analysis
Editors' picks
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GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rebounds
Following an earlier recovery attempt, GBP/USD turned south and declined below 1.2100 in the second half of the day on Friday. The negative shift seen in risk mood amid rising geopolitical tensions helps the US Dollar outperform its rivals and hurts the pair.
USD/JPY consolidates near 149.70 ahead of the US Consumer Sentiment
USD/JPY snaps the recent winning streak ahead of US data. A slew of solid US data could underpin the US Dollar. S&P Global anticipates that Japan could see upward interest rates trajectory, beginning in 2024.
Gold advances to fresh multi-week highs above $1,920
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Oil (WTI) trades broadly steady at $83 after a surprise buildup in US Oil stockpiles. The US Dollar rallied Thursday on the back of an unexpected pickup on food and energy inflation. Oil is expected to extend losses as demand is expected to weaken further.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
USDJPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USDJPY move this year? Our experts make a USDJPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.
USDJPY FORECAST 2023
The Japanese Yen's strength from the last quarter of 2022 has found an interim bottom at the beginning of the new year. 2023 is set to be a challenger year for the USD/JPY currency pair.
From January 2022 to December 2022, the maximum level for the USDJPY was 150.176¥/USD (on October 20th 2022), and the minimum, 131.1170¥/USD (on December 30st 2022).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR USDJPY
Central banks' imbalances played a big role in the matter, with the US Federal Reserve adopting aggressive tightening in March 2022 and the Bank of Japan holding on to its ultra-loose monetary policy.
Could Ueda’s strong theoretical knowledge help to unravel and reorganize the “various confusing parts” of the BOJ’s monetary policy? Regarding BOJ monetary policy, he said: "I think the current policy is appropriate, monetary easing must carry on given the current state."
Influential Institutions & People for the USDJPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.
BOJ Official Website and on Twitter
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda is the 32nd and current Governor of the Bank of Japan. He is a professor and the dean of the business department at Kyoritsu Women's University in Tokyo and the external director at JGC Holdings Corp, an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. He was not even considered a dark-horse candidate. Ueda wasn’t really on their radar because the BOJ governor job has traditionally been assumed by a long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrat or central bank official.
Ueda on Wikipedia's Profile
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USDJPY
The USDJPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.