EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD turns south towards 1.0200 amid risk-aversion
EUR/USD is heading south towards 1.0200 in early Europe, as bulls failed to keep reins near the monthly high. Mounting US-China tensions over Taiwan and recession fears weigh on risk sentiment and help the dollar find demand as a safe haven.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
EUR/USD was last seen trading near 1.0230, where the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest downtrend is located. If buyers fail to reclaim that level, 1.0200 (psychological level, 50-period SMA on the four-hour chart) aligns as key support ahead of 1.0150 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA).
On the upside, 1.0300 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA) forms significant resistance ahead of 1.0370 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has retreated toward 50 with the latest decline, suggesting that bulls remain hesitant to bet on further euro strength.
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD has reversed its direction following Monday's rally and declined toward 1.0200 during the European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair could extend its slide if 1.0200 support fails and markets participants will keep a close eye on geopolitical development.
Markets have turned risk-averse ad safe haven flows started to dominate the action early Tuesday on reports suggesting that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was planning to visit Taiwan. According to the latest headlines, Pelosi's delegation is expected to arrive in Taiwan at 1420 GMT.
In response, “There will be serious consequences if she insists on making the visit," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said. Chinese news outlets also reported that Taiwan would face "disastrous consequences" and that the US would pay the price for undermining China's interests.
Reflecting the negative impact of these developments on market mood, US stock index futures are down between 0.4% and 0.7%.
In case investors continue to seek refuge, the dollar should be able to continue to outperform its rivals. The US economic docket will feature JOLTS Job Openings data for June but the risk perception is likely to remain the primary market driver.
On the other hand, a positive shift in sentiment with a de-escalation of China-US tensions could help EUR/USD regather its bullish momentum.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US authorities in denial, but what do the market think? Premium
The US economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, indicating a technical recession. Inflation at both shores of the Atlantic reached fresh multi-decade highs in July. EUR/USD's long-term bearish stance remains intact, with fresh multi-year lows in sight.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD turns south towards 1.0200 amid risk-aversion
EUR/USD is heading south towards 1.0200 in early Europe, as bulls failed to keep reins near the monthly high. Mounting US-China tensions over Taiwan and recession fears weigh on risk sentiment and help the dollar find demand as a safe haven.
GBP/USD tests 1.2200 as risk-off flows dominate
GBP/USD is trading deep in red near 1.2200, as investors turn away from higher-yielding assets such as the GBP. Despite falling US Treasury bond yields, the dollar manages to gather strength amid risk aversion. US Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is the main event risk this Tuesday.
USD/JPY finds support near 130.40 on Japanese jaw-boning
USD/JPY is rebounding towards 131.00, having found support near 130.40 after the Japanese Finance Minister expressed concerns about the rapid moves in the yen. Risk-aversion combined with the sell-off in the US dollar and yields keep the downside intact in the pair.
Gold bulls keep their sight on $1,786 amid Taiwan tensions
Gold price eases but upside remains favored amid escalating US-China tensions. The expected visit of US’ Pelosi to Taipei rattles markets amid China warnings. Gold bulls remain on track to test the critical resistance area at $1,786.
WTI: Sellers in the driving seat around $93.00
WTI crude oil prices remain depressed after breaking the one-month-old symmetrical triangle to the south. That said, the black gold holds lower ground near $93.00, the lowest levels in two weeks, during Tuesday’s Asian session. Given the bearish MACD signals joining the triangle’s breakdown, the commodity prices are likely to decline further.
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Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2022 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2022
In the EURUSD 2022 Forecast, our dedicated contributors expect the bearish trend to continue, almost during the Q1 and the Q2 of 2022. By the end of the year 2021, the average outlook for the pair was 1,1306. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2021 to Dec 2021, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.2328 (on 06/01/21), and the minimum, 1.1200 (on 24/12/21).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2022 FOR EURUSD
Much water has run under the bridge in 2021. Central bankers from around the world have been cooling down speculation on persistently high inflation, calling in “temporarily,” and forecasting it would slowly stabilize to more suitable levels by 2022. But make no mistake: Hot inflation is the elephant in the room. Central banks' measures will be key for EUR/USD moves this next year. The coronavirus pandemic that hit the world in March 2020 still goes on and will also be a critical event in 2022, although there’s a better economic perspective.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.