Forex Forecast Polls
The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
EUR/USD: US authorities in denial, but what do the market think? Premium
The US economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, indicating a technical recession. Inflation at both shores of the Atlantic reached fresh multi-decade highs in July. EUR/USD's long-term bearish stance remains intact, with fresh multi-year lows in sight.
GBP/USD: Bulls on the lookout for 1.2500 ahead of BOE, NFP Premium
GBP/USD booked second straight weekly advance as the Fed disappointed. US recession fears loom ahead of NFP while BOE is set for a 50 bps rate hike. Daily technical setup favors bulls, with a test of 1.2500 likely on the cards.
Bitcoin: Is BTC out of the ‘bearish’ woods yet?
Bitcoin has overcome the 200-week SMA and 30-day EMA, denoting a major surge in bullish momentum. As a result, BTC could revisit anywhere from $25,000 to $30,000 soon. A daily candlestick close below 200 four-hour SMA at $21,117 will invalidate this bullish thesis.
The Week Ahead: Fed rate decision, UK banks, Shell, Unilever, Apple, Microsoft results
Its certain that the Federal Reserve will be hiking rates again this week by another 75bps, with the only question being what comes in September, and whether we see 50bps or another 75bps.
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
Gold: XAUUSD needs to clear $1,780 to extend rebound Premium
Gold closed the second straight week in positive territory. Falling US T-bond yields helped XAUUSD gather bullish momentum. Additional gains are likely in case buyers clear $1,780 resistance.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
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